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Real Estate Report: San Francisco Bay Area - February 2007

Mar 21, 2007

The San Francisco Bay Area housing market continued its downward slide in February. Home sales fell sharply across the nine-county region, and median prices remained flat. Contra Costa, Solano and Sonoma Counties fared the worst; Marin County and Alameda County performed the best.

After 25 months, home sales are still falling in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Overall, the number of February home sales fell 7.9 percent from February of 2006 to February of 2007, putting home sales in the Bay Area at an eleven year low.

Median home prices also fell in five out of the nine counties, but the median price of a Bay Area home edged up slightly from $618,000 in February 2006 to $620,000 in February 2007. Rents, meanwhile, held steady.

Bay Area Housing Data

Median Home Price Comparison

County Median Price Feb. 06 Median Price Feb. 07 % Change
Alameda $580,000 $585,000 0.9
Contra Costa $568,000 $537,000 -5.5
Marin $799,000 $829,000 3.8
Napa $620,000 $612,500 -1.2
Santa Clara $667,000 $677,000 1.5
San Francisco $740,000 $757,000 2.4
San Mateo $735,000 $720,000 -2.0
Solano $455,000 $445,000 -2.2
Sonoma $529,500 $515,000 -2.7

Between February of 2006 and February of 2007, median prices fell in almost every Bay Area County. Marin, San Francisco, Santa Clara and Alameda Counties all saw increases, but they were extremely modest by historical standards.

Home/Condo Sales Activity Comparison

12 Month: Home Sales February 2006 vs. February 2007 (Entire Bay Area)

# Sold Feb 06# Sold Feb 07% Change
6,844 6,305-7.9

1 Month: Home Sales January 2007 vs. February 2007 (Entire Bay Area)

# Sold Jan 07# Sold Feb 07% Change
6,168 6,305 2.2

February kicks off the home selling season in the Bay Area. The month typically outperforms January. Since 1988, February has averaged more than 6,600 sales. This is the first year since 1996 that sales have been below that number.

12 Month: Home Sales February 2006 vs. February 2007 (By County)

Area Homes Sold Feb. 06 Homes Sold Feb. 07 % Change
Alameda 1,307 1,356 3.7
Contra Costa 1,426 1,160 -18.7
Marin 219 228 4.1
Napa 99 93 -6.1
Santa Clara 1,776 1,654 -6.9
San Francisco 429 375 -12.6
San Mateo 568 528 -2.0
Solano 528 458 -13.3
Sonoma 492 453 -7.9

Sales were down considerably in almost every county within the Bay Area. Home sales were best in Alameda, and Marin County, with Solano, Contra Costa, San Francisco and Sonoma County markets performing the worst.

Fair Market Rent Comparison

1 Bedroom Fair Market Rent (12 Month Comparison)

Area 1 Bdr Rent Feb 061 Bdr Rent Feb 07 % Change
Napa $845 $856 1.3
Oakland-Fremont $1,045 $1,055 0.9
San Francisco $1,227 $1,239 0.9
San Jose-Sunnyvale $1,059 $1,068 0.8

2 Bedroom Fair Market Rent (12 Month Comparison)

Area 2 Bdr Rent Feb 062 Bdr Rent Feb 07 % Change
Napa $1,098 $1,112 1.3
Oakland-Fremont $1,238 $1,250 0.9
San Francisco $1,536 $1,551 0.9
San Jose-Sunnyvale $1,273 $1,284 0.8

3 Bedroom Fair Market Rent (12 Month Comparison)

Area 3 Bdr Rent Feb 063 Bdr Rent Feb 07 % Change
Napa $1,519 $1,538 1.3
Oakland-Fremont $1,679 $1,695 0.9
San Francisco $2,051 $2,071 0.9
San Jose-Sunnyvale $1,831 $1,846 0.8

Fair market rents are still relatively low compared to the median prices of homes. In most cases, you can currently save anywhere from $800 to $2,500 per month renting versus buying.

Foreclosure and Interest Rate Comparison

Foreclosure Activity (Properties Sold at Auction) Entire State

Month/Year Foreclosure Sales % Returned to Lender
Dec 06 2,819 87
Jan 07 3,592 86
Feb 07 4,171 89

In February of 2007, the number of foreclosed properties sold at auction in California was 4,171. This number is up significantly from just one month ago, and up nearly 50 percent from two years ago. In Contra Costa County, the number of foreclosed properties sold at auction increased a whopping 865 percent in one year alone. Lenders are also having more properties, unable to be sold at auction, returned to them.

Interest Rate Comparison (Entire State)

LoanJan 07 RateFeb 07 Rate% Change
30-Year Fixed 6.24 6.32 -0.08
15-Year Fixed 5.99 6.09 0.10
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.47 6.48 0.01
5/1 ARM 6.18 6.15 -0.03
1 Yr ARM 5.94 6.04 0.10

Interest rates remained relatively steady between January and February of 2007. The 30-year fixed rate and the 5/1 ARM rate dropped slightly, while rates on other loans edged upwards.

Bay Area Housing Market Summary

Prices couldn't be much flatter in the Bay Area than they are now. Homeowners who saw double-digit price appreciation between 2000 and 2005 are now seeing the value of their home decrease.

The February trend of sliding prices and low home sales is expected to continue into March, as more homes are foreclosed upon and unsold inventory continues to flood the market. Affordability is still a problem, and many lenders are tightening lending regulations, which could squeeze additional buyers out of the market.

Chances are, we will see further price depreciation in downtrodden counties like Contra Costa, Solano and Sonoma Counties.

Prices may edge up slightly in Marin County and San Francisco County, but gains will more than likely be modest.

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San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Report- July 2007

Real estate continued to be a losing venture for many San Francisco Bay Area homeowners and housing market professionals during the month of July. Homes sold at the slowest pace since 1995, with the rate of sales falling throughout the nine county region with the exception of San Francisco. Median prices also dropped, with the biggest declines recorded in Solano and Sonoma Counties.

Bay Area Housing Report - January 2007

The housing market continues to slip in most parts of the Bay Area. Median home prices dropped most notably in Sonoma and Solano County, while Marin and Santa Clara County housing markets saw modest increases.

San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Watch- June 2007

Home sales declined once again in the San Francisco Bay Area over the month of June. According to the most recent reports, homes sold at their slowest pace for 12 years, and prices have begun to dip as well. Markets that performed the worst last month include those in Napa County, Solano County, and Sonoma County.

San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Report- May 2007

Slow home sales, rising foreclosures, and falling prices continued to plague the San Francisco Bay Area throughout the month of May. Housing markets seeing the most turmoil are located in Contra Costa County, Napa County, and Solano County, but virtually no market in the nine-county region has experienced improvement since the bust.

San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Update- April 2007

The San Francisco Bay Area housing market continued its downward spiral during the beginning of the second quarter. Home sales dropped dramatically through the nine-county region and prices remained stagnant.